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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still